오늘은 입니다 등록번호: 서울 라-11997(ISSN: 2005-3061) |
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Copyright ⓒ 월간 [해양과조선]
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| Knocking at the door “2011 Korean shipbuilding, marine and shipping industry” |
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In the year of 2010, everyone who engages in the industry has taken over the best effort to root out the remnants of the aftermath of the recession in 2009, by getting traveled around the world. As a result, although the 'recovery' has not been achieved, still relatively stable and positive signals are captured from all over the country. Of course, confidence should be established.
On 2011, the first month's monthly magazine "Marine and Shipbuilding” reviewed the figures in 2010 once again, and got considered for any position to be taken on 2011. 1. Views on 2011 Korean shipbuilding and marine and shipping For 2009-2010, the restoration of shipbuilding industry, the biggest concern of the domestic shipbuilding, marine and shipping industry made the 'recovery' as visible and controversial projects have been substantially completed. However, in 2011, fierce debate for the shipbuilders' drop in performance that holds back further rise is to be deployed probably. The rise of exchange rate is expected to somewhere offset a significant portion for the decline of construction prices in dollar terms and by the delivery delay, the reduction of canceled orders and the increase of dock rate followed by orders restoration, the ship construction rather would be increased in turnover compared to 2010 that leads to the judgment of no concerns for the declining situation, but in the other hand, the opinion of the last plateau would be heightened. However, like this year, the shipbuilding industry in 2011 is likely to be evolved in favor of the large shipbuilders. It’s because the vessel construction rate of large shipbuilders has the trend of meaningful level of decrease, and in fact with increasing performance of other sector it is estimated to be in a step back from the performance debate. The industry predicts that estimated order quantity in the global industry in 2011 would be approximately 3,000 ten thousand CGT. And this value represents to be slightly more than 2,640 ten thousand CGT of the prediction for 2010. But, because it seems a little difficult for medium-sized shipbuilders to get enough quantities and is expected to maintain large ship oriented ordering pattern, the phase favorable for large shipbuilders is estimated to be deployed. In particular, the order such as LNG ship and marine plants is expected to be recovered, and it is also because large shipyards dominate the field. |
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| (1) What the 2011 shipbuilding industry is going to be?
1) The 2011 global order to be estimated as approximately 3000~3500 ten thousand CGT Figure 1.The 2011 global orders expectation ■ Source: Anticipated by Clarksons and Kiwoom Securities Korea 2) Large vessels oriented order rather than small and medium ones to be expected Figure 2. Proportion of orders for large scale ship ■ Source: Clarksons 3) LNG line orders to be expected Figure 3. Changes in annual orders for LNG carrier ■ Source: Clarksons 4) Earning outlook for the shipbuilders Table 1. Delivery plans of Korean major shipbuilders by year ■ Source: Clarkson (2) 2011 Marine Plant Industry, orders increase to be expected Table 2. Petrobras order plans (unit: a ship) ■ Source: Petrobars (3) Shipping Industry 1) Expected to keep worldwide containers shipping company to cooperation? Table3. Container ship supply and demand expectation in Oct 2010 by Clarksons (unit: %) ■ Source: Clarksons, HMC Investment Securities Table 4. Container ship supply and demand expectation in Oct 2010 by Clarksons (unit: Million teu lifts, 1000 teu) ■ Source: Clarksons. HMC Investment Securities 2) Bulker; competition for securing new demand to be highlighted Table 5. Major items of bulk carriers transporting cargo growth, bottom, supply and demand expectation (unit: Million tones, %) ■ Source: Clarksons. HMC Investment Securities (Foot note: Supply and Demand growth is in terms of Panamax equlvalents Demand growth = trade growth converted into Panamax vessels based on: 55,000t cargoes*7 trips a year Supply growth = net change in bulk fleet divided by 65,000dwt *Supply/Demand: positive number = ship surplus: negative = ship deficit) 3) Tanker? Compared to other types, imbalance of demand and supply to be prolonged Table 6. Tanker supply and demand expectation by Clarksons (unit: Million dwt, %) ■ Source: Clarksons, HMC Investment Securities 2. Conclusion The building market in 2011 is expected to rise, but global shipping order quantity is still estimated to be insufficient. However, as mentioned earlier, it is judged that large shipbuilders have no difficulty in maintaining a stable cash flow followed by a stable ship orders with competitive advantage. Of course, there could get the profits lower than the expected due to low prices of ships. Rather, in the case of large shipbuilders, it’s highly unlikely to show profits less than the expected due to the competitiveness strengthened. In contrast, the worries of medium-sized shipbuilders in Korea are deepening by the day. Of course, some excellent medium-sized shipbuilders manage to make a good opportunity even in these situations. ‘January’ always starts anew to have a plan for new challenges and further exposure. Let us desire the hopeful and fruitful results. ■ References |
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